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On top of that, the latest U.S. jobs market scorecard will be released along with more mega-cap earnings. This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.7% for the first time since November. That's down sharply from the six or seven rate cuts investors were anticipating coming into the year. April jobs Investors will also get an update on the labor picture next week, with the release of the April nonfarm payrolls report set for Friday. Corporate earnings season will also ramp up in the week ahead with a slew of consumer-facing companies set to report.
Persons: Stocks, Powell, David Alcaly, Jerome Powell's, we've, they're, Brian Nick, Matt Stucky, it's, Stucky, Dow Jones, Nick, Archer, Eli Lilly, Kraft, Estee, Ingersoll Rand, Stanley Black, Decker, Hershey Organizations: Nasdaq, Google, Microsoft, Treasury, Lazard Asset Management, Macro, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Apple, Micro Computer, Dallas Fed, Paramount, ON Semiconductor, Chicago PMI, Prudential Financial, Devices, Storage, Diamondback Energy, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Daniels, Midland, Molson Coors Beverage, Marathon Petroleum, GE Healthcare Technologies, PayPal, ADP, P Global, Manufacturing, Oil, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Etsy, eBay, Qualcomm, MetLife, First, Devon Energy, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Marriott International, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer, Companies, CVS Health, Generac, Mastercard, Labor, Nation Entertainment, Booking Holdings, Natural Resources, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, EOG, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Howmet Aerospace, ConocoPhillips, Moderna, PMI, Services PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago, McDonald's, Albemarle, EOG Resources
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation reaccelerating across various segments, says Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth management CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss why it could be difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, what Schutte recommends for the Fed, and how investors can play the current environment.
Persons: Northwestern Mutual's Schutte Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth, Federal Reserve, Fed
3 things rattling markets this week
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The S&P 500 tumbled the first two trading days of the new quarter and is down 0.8% for the week after paring back some of its losses on Wednesday. Some Fed officials revealed at the central bank’s policy meeting last month that they see fewer rate cuts than the three they forecast last December for 2024. Traders see a 63% expectation that the Fed cuts rates in June, a drop from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “With Middle East tensions on the rise, OPEC+ supply side measures have pushed crude oil volatility down,” BofA strategists wrote in a Wednesday report. “Adding to a complex backdrop, we now estimate that improving economic growth expectations have helped push global oil markets into a deficit.”The price of gold has also climbed this week.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, , , Brent Schutte, Jerome Powell, , Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Brent, Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, Donald Trump’s, Matt Egan, “ Michael, ” Damian Williams, Bruce Garelick, ” Williams, ” Read, Joe Biden, Sean Lyngaas, China Nicholas Burns, Antony Blinken, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Treasury, FactSet, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Hawkish, San Francisco Fed, Stanford University, Wednesday, • Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Traders, Organization of, Petroleum, West Texas, Brent, Bank of America, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, DWAC, Southern, of, Acquisition Corporation, , Microsoft, US, Department of Homeland Security, CNN Locations: New York, OPEC, Florida, of New York, Washington, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are echoes of 1999 in today's equity markets, says Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what Schutte makes of the recent speculative moves in equity markets, why certain parts of the market are risky, and much more.
Persons: Northwestern Mutual's Schutte Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will leave rates elevated which will cause a shallow recession: Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss his calls for a recession this year, whether investors should pay attention to one data point on inflation, and more.
Persons: Northwestern Mutual's Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Locations: Northwestern
The year opened with a bang as employers added 353,000 jobs in January, far exceeding the most optimistic of forecasts. Revisions also raised the November job number to 182,000 and also added 117,000 more jobs to December. “The labor market is certainly cooling,” Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, said ahead of the report. “I think the labor market by many measures is at or nearing normal, but not totally back to normal,” Powell told reporters. But it is hard to contain the enthusiasm that a strong jobs report along with moderating inflation is good for most Americans.
Persons: , , Becky Frankiewicz, isn’t, ” “ We’re, December’s downwardly, ” Brent Schutte, seasonality, Amy Glaser, Glaser, Chris Todd, ” Todd, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, “ It’s, Julia Pollak, ” Schutte Organizations: ADP, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Adecco, BLS, Federal Reserve, Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood news is already priced-in and markets will see a pullback, says Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss why the equity markets are due for a pause, why there could still be a recession this year, and how much this week's economic data could move the markets.
Persons: Northwestern Mutual's Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management
Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.
Persons: , Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas
Goldman Sachs"We expect price increases to be driven by modest earnings growth and well-supported price-to-earnings multiples," wrote Austin Pickle, a strategist at WFII, in a January 16 note. Stucky continued: "I've never seen a re-acceleration in earnings growth — which is what the baseline expectation is for earnings — absent some sort of economic recovery or an acceleration in economic growth. He noted that many factors influence profits, but added that his forward model suggests there's earnings risk ahead. Bianco said he expects flat or mid-single-digit earnings growth for stocks in most sectors. However, he said that during expansions, GDP growth is a poor predictor of earnings growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Austin Pickle, Jonathan Golub, Golub, Matt Stucky, Stucky, I've, Brad Klapmeyer, He's, Klapmeyer, Anthony Saglimbene, , Saglimbene, Saglimbene doesn't, David Bianco, Bianco Organizations: Business, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Macquarie Asset Management, DWS Group
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a mild recession, says Northwestern Mutual's Brent SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest comments from the Federal Reserve, what underpins the soft landing thesis and how much it'll hold, and how to play the market if investors are feeling bearish.
Persons: Brent Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Federal Reserve
New York CNN —Cash is king right now, but investors aren’t casting stocks away completely. Yields jumped on Thursday, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech that he’s unsure whether the central bank has adequately tightened monetary policy. Ham says he sees opportunities in dividend growth stocks, whose declines this year mean they’re priced at attractive levels. Investors also shouldn’t overlook small-cap stocks, says Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. However, investors are bullish about another pause in rate hikes next month, according to fed funds rate futures.
Persons: Cash, That’s, Jerome Powell, , Emerson Ham III, Ham, Dave Sekera, he’s, They’re, hasn’t, Matt Stucky, Stucky, It’s, , ” Powell, Bryan Mena, Powell, Trevor, Elon Musk, Clare Duffy, Musk, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, Treasury, Advisors, Big Tech, Morningstar Research Services, Utilities, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, International Monetary Fund, Economic, of New, LinkedIn, Facebook, Center, Anti, Defamation League, ADL Locations: New York, Washington ,, of New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSmall caps will do well on the other side of a mild recession: Northwestern's Brent SchutteBrent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent outperformance of small-caps compared to technology stocks, small-to-medium-sized businesses struggling to access capital, and more.
Persons: Northwestern's Brent Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Seven megacap stocks -- Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) -- have led broader markets higher this year. Their rising stock prices ballooned valuations, however, and some investors say the megacaps could be vulnerable if climbing bond yields keep pressuring stocks. "When the big tech stocks start going down ... the indexes go down," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Still, strategists point out that the rise in implied volatility for tech stocks is no more than for the broader market.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, megacaps, LSEG, Matt Maley, Miller, , Matt Stucky, Chris Murphy, Rick Meckler, J, Bryant Evans, ” Evans, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Susquehanna Financial Group, Amazon, Cherry Lane Investments, Cozad Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New Jersey
Insider Today: Ex-Goldman partners dish
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter. In today's big story, former Goldman Sachs partners explain what led them to leave their prestigious positions within the bank. A recent Insider investigation by Dakin Campbell and Emmalyse Brownstein found that at least 202 partners have left the firm during CEO David Solomon's volatile five-year tenure. And while Solomon's strategic missteps were a key talking point for many, not all the former partners bashed the CEO. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, it's, Goldman, David Solomon, Dakin Campbell, Emmalyse Brownstein, David Solomon's, Dakin, It's, Julian Salisbury, Dina Powell McCormick, Fred Baba, Solomon, Lloyd Blankfein, Apoorva Mehta, Instacart, Daniel Sundheim, Michael Moritz, Here's, Instacart's, Beck, Apoorva, Mehta, Tyler Le, Steve Squeri, Squeri, AEW, Tony Khan, Lauren Boebert, Anna Moneymaker, General Merrick Garland, Kim Kardashian, General Mills, Getty, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, D1 Capital Partners, Sequoia, Getty, Sequoia Capital, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management's, American Express, Wrestling, WWE's, Fed, U.S, FedEx, General Locations: Wall, Silicon, What's, , ChatGPT, Cerebral, Colorado, Mostar, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova, New York City, San Diego, London, New York
US stocks dipped Tuesday as investors braced for the Fed's next interest rate move. Investors are pricing in a near-100% chance rates will be kept level on Wednesday. All three benchmark indexes ended the day lower, with the Dow losing over 100 points. All three benchmark indexes ended the day in the red, with the Dow losing over 100 points as central bankers deliberated over their next policy decision. Markets are pricing in a 99% chance central bankers will choose to keep interest rates level on Wednesday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brent Schutte Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Here's
There are six key economic indicators for markets to gauge the health of the US economy. The US is likely headed for a mild recession, according to one chief investment officer. Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Small business optimism is waningSmall business optimism slumped over the past month to 91.3, down 0.6 points from July's reading. But real wages of Americans have actually fallen 0.5% over the past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could spell trouble for the US consumer.
Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Cleveland Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, University of Michigan's Locations: Wall, Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed won't ease liquidity until wages move substantially lower, says Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the overall macro economy, where the terminal rate goes and what could keep rates persistently higher.
Persons: Northwestern Mutual's Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
"The market will probably cheer it a bit if it is the end of the Fed rate hike cycle," said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Traders see a roughly two-out-of three chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in November, CME's data showed. Odds for December show about a 60% chance rates of rates staying at current levels. Analysts at Oxford Economics forecast further downside for global earnings, noting that stocks "have typically delivered far weaker returns following the final Fed rate hike when it has coincided with an EPS downturn." "But I'm not sure how sustainable it would be given where stocks are valued relative to bonds already."
Persons: Brendan McDermid, CFRA, Brent Schutte, Schutte, Jerome Powell, Sam Stovall, LSEG Datastream, Jack Ablin, I'm, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Oxford Economics, Equity, Treasury, Cresset, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Oxford
U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night as investors looked toward the release of the consumer price index for more insights on inflation. S&P 500 futures lost 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.04%. Economists are estimating a 3.6% year-over-year rise in inflation, according to Dow Jones. Fed funds futures pricing data indicate a 93% probability of rates remaining the same as of Tuesday evening, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If there's a higher-than-expected number, it kind of reaffirms the narrative that wage inflation is driving structural inflation in the overall economy," Stucky said.
Persons: Dow Jones, Matt Stucky, Stucky Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Oracle, CPI, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why Northwestern's Brent Schutte is expecting a mild recessionBrent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Schutte makes of the latest economic data, if a recession would be healthy for the economy, and Schutte's overweight on value stocks.
Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. The Fed lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate by a widely expected 25 basis points, marking the 11th hike in the U.S. central bank's past 12 policy meetings. As of Wednesday, 77.6% of the 152 companies listed on the S&P 500 (.SPX) that have reported earnings have beaten analysts' expectations as compiled by Refinitiv. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a 1.75-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.64-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 72 new highs and 92 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Angelo Kourfafas, Edward Jones, Brent Schutte, David Bahnsen, Jim Vena, Lance Fritz, Wells Fargo, decliners, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Savio D'Souza, Anil D'Silva, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Boeing, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Google, NYSE, Bahnsen, Meta, Facebook, Refinitiv, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Union Pacific, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCheap small and mid-cap stocks see tailwinds in a recession, says Northwestern's Brent SchutteBrent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks, hedging a recession-related equity downside with fixed-income investments, and the Fed's concerns about a wage spiral bringing inflation up.
Persons: Northwestern's Brent Schutte Brent Schutte Organizations: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company
The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.
Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued Coinbase, accusing it of illegally operating without registration with the regulator. That happened a day after the SEC filed a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao. Coinbase shares were down 13.4% at $50.81 after earlier hitting their lowest level since January. Also, after falling earlier, Bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, was up 1.4%. Coinbase had disclosed in March that it received a "Wells notice" from the SEC threatening a potential lawsuit over certain products.
Persons: Coinbase, Changpeng Zhao, Matt Stucky, Shannon Stapleton, Binance's cryptocurrency, Paul Grewal, we'll, Grewal, Manya Saini, Shristi, Sinéad Carew, Paul Simao Organizations: Coinbase, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Binance, Global, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Coinbase Global Inc, Nasdaq, Times, REUTERS, Mining, Marathon, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York, U.S, Bengaluru
Several measures from Friday's jobs report show the labor market is stronger than it's been in decades. But Terrazas pointed to potential concerns in the labor market and for interest rates. "If it's the former, it's just a matter of time before gravity catches up with the labor market," Terrazas said. Overall though, the different robust labor market data suggests the US could maybe avoid a recession as has been the case so far in 2023. Despite potential risks in the job market, Pollak believes there's a possibility that the US continues to avoid a recession.
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